Everyone talks about Bitcoin's price. Almost no one talks about its purchasing power.
2021: $22 a glass of Moet. 1 BTC=$55k USD ($74.8k AUD)
2026: $35 a glass of Moet. 1 BTC=$80k USD ($110k AUD)
Let's do the math.
2021: 1 BTC bought ~3,400 glasses of Moet
2026: 1 BTC buys ~3,142 glasses of Moët
That's a loss of ~258 glasses of champagne per Bitcoin.
Bitcoin went up 45% in USD. But champagne went up 59% in dollars.
This is the conversation no one wants to have.
Everyone watches the ticker. Few watch what that Bitcoin actually buys.
Price went up. Purchasing power went down.
Not because Bitcoin failed in inflation hedge. Because inflation ate the gains.
Champagne. Coffee. Rent. Groceries.
Everything got more expensive in dollars. Bitcoin kept up better than cash. But it still lost ground to real life.
The uncomfortable truth:
Bitcoin didn't make you richer in real terms over the last five years. It just made you less poor than the person who held dollars.
That's not a victory. That's just losing slower.
So what's the point?
The point is that price is a distraction. Purchasing power is the only thing that matters.
A 80k Bitcoin sounds great. But if a glass of Moet is $35, a coffee is $9, and rent is double what it was in 2021 – are you actually ahead?
Ask yourself:
Are you tracking price or purchasing power?
Because one makes you feel good. The other tells you the truth.
Price, exchange rate, purchasing power, etc. all of which only matter if you plan on having less sats one day.
I'm tracking the supply of BTC, the number of kWh estimated to be consumed by miners, and what percent of the supply (burned kWh) is locked by private keys I have exclusive knowledge of.
Those numbers are only going up!
True if your consumption and that of whichever other poor person you compare yourself to consisted of Moet only.
Purchasing power (#1464336), but also only on a select few goods. However, I'm confident my selection is less geared towards making provocative statements and more towards finding signal.
~econ
I think the time frame is a bit short
And Moet champagne and coffee makes for a stupidly selected consumer basket
exchange rate is irrelevant, because there is no context to the purchasing power just with that number.
everyone says bitcoin to 1M but what the hell does a steak cost in that enviroment?
300$?
also love this FRED chart.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=PUbY