Every cycle it's the same thread: "is it too late to buy?" And every answer is
either a hopium moon-boy or a perma-bear. Nobody actually shows their work.
A few months ago that started bugging me enough to do something about it.
So I started logging one number every day: a plain buy / sell / hodl score for
BTC. But instead of one guru's gut feeling, it's built from 8 on-chain + technical
indicators — MVRV, NUPL, Puell, Fear & Greed, RSI, the usual suspects — across 5
timeframes. Same number for everyone, computed server-side. You see exactly what
I see. No "personalized" template nonsense.
Then I did the part most people skip: I backtested it. Ran the signal back across
previous cycles and compared it to blindly DCA-ing and to buying at random.
I'm deliberately not going to post the number here — partly because you shouldn't
trust MY number, you should run it yourself. But it was enough that I now check it
before I move any real size.
The thing that surprised me: the boring, unsexy metrics (Puell, MVRV) carried way
more weight near cycle tops than any of the hype indicators everyone screenshots.
Anyway — it's live, free, no login, no email wall. You can pull today's signal and
backtest the logic against history yourself in ~30 seconds: btclyzer.com
Honestly I'd rather have this crowd tear it apart than have 1,000 normies clap for
it. Roast the algorithm. Tell me which indicator I'm weighting wrong, what blind
spot I've got, what you'd fold in. SN is the only place I trust to actually find
the holes.
It's a cool idea but just plain old daily dca for me.
thats a solid approach — dca is honestly undefeated and i'm not trying to talk
anyone out of it. funny enough most people using the tool are stackers like you,
so i built a dca calculator + backtest right in.
the way i actually use the signal isn't instead of dca, it's a tilt: keep buying
on schedule no matter what, but when the score sits deep in "cheap" territory i
just size up that week's buy a bit. backtested that vs flat dca and the gap was
bigger than i expected.
how often do you stack — weekly? curious whether the cheap zones would've lined up
with where you'd already have wanted to add.
I buy daily. I do increase my DCA in bear markets. Not as much as I used to in the days where Bitcoin was really cheap.
MATH?!
POWER LAW?!
The zodiac calendar
ha, fair — s2f and the rainbow chart earned that reputation. which is why mine
predicts exactly nothing. no price target — it just reads current conditions vs
history and says cheap / neutral / expensive. thermometer, not horoscope. tell me
which indicator is secretly zodiac and i'll cut it 😄