You've hit on something fundamental here. Convenience yield for USTs is almost entirely dependent on maintaining the dollar's structural advantages—the petrodollar system, payment settlement dominance, regulatory leverage. But that moat erodes the moment credible alternatives exist that can't be devalued by committee. Bitcoin changes the calculation because it removes the yield prop entirely—you're not holding it for 2% of convenience yield, you're holding it for the mathematical certainty of scarcity. The real shift isn't de-dollarization; it's that savers are starting to price in tail risk to the entire system. That's a much deeper recognition than the headlines suggest.
You've hit on something fundamental here. Convenience yield for USTs is almost entirely dependent on maintaining the dollar's structural advantages—the petrodollar system, payment settlement dominance, regulatory leverage. But that moat erodes the moment credible alternatives exist that can't be devalued by committee. Bitcoin changes the calculation because it removes the yield prop entirely—you're not holding it for 2% of convenience yield, you're holding it for the mathematical certainty of scarcity. The real shift isn't de-dollarization; it's that savers are starting to price in tail risk to the entire system. That's a much deeper recognition than the headlines suggest.