Quantum FUD is everywhere these days and I'm surprised it's from some prominent Bitcoiners.
I did a few quantum computing certifications prior to becoming a Bitcoiner, so I can say I was battle-tested in this domain.
In my view QC (quantum computing) is as overblown as nuclear fusion. Both do not work and even if they suddenly did, my own calculations say they will use way more energy that they will ROEI.
For quantum computing, its budget is hidden behind all that cooling. Basically, you are trying to perfectly simulate the universe when you build a quantum computer. But the universe you are trying to simulate is densely packed energy in subatomic particles. Goes without saying that if you are to use quantum particles perfectly then you have to bunch nearly as much energy in each one as what you're trying to simulate and more, to give a reasonable readout voltage.
I did an article on this on Hackernoon.com.
But here's the thing, I also WANT a quantum computer to be built that can hack classical emcryption.
In a way, I feel like this will be the second Oppenheimer moment. A nuke shall be built for the digital realm.
You think anybody will care about a few bitcoins then? Nah. Secrets of powerful people and organizations, hidden behind classical encryption, will make our days.
The economy is driven by new information that moves people and less by zero-sum games like stealing Bitcoin. That works on the level of small time players, but like I said, these machines will use so much energy and create such a visible energy signature when they go boom on RSA / ECDSA that they will only be deployed for global scale needs.
One need could be a digital war between the USA and Russia — this will use the Shor's Algorithm.
The thing we all fear.
A better positive sum one is solving nuclear fusion itself or mapping the energetics of nuclear fission — using Quantum Phase Estimation.
Once again, a massive amount of energy will need to be consumed. Maybe so much that we shall run quantum computers on the Moon and just throw a lot of energy at them.
Unlike building AI chips, with quantum, hardware improvements will only go so far. If you are trying to simulate 2^1,000,000 things at once where 1 million is the number of qubits, you bet, you will need so much energy. Information = energy.
Landauer principle.
Ok, I threw in a new idea in the title that has very little relation to Quantum Computing but I think it bears to explain its own psychology.
So prior to becoming a Bitcoiner, I was also researching economic systems.
Communism and many associated ideas to it sounded ideal once, because I was young and pacifist and wanted everyone to have the good things in life.
Until I started to work and realized that's not how the world works.
So Capitalism it is. Use capital to make capital, ad infinitum.
Alas, it's not working that well because Bingo, Crony Capitalism because money is printed, mostly by the USA and we all let it slide. Hence Bitcoin Capitalism is the way to go. All money is now printed in a fair, meritocracy race, and the money is very hard to corrupt, and it's supply is fixed.
Side exploration — the Venus Project where scientists run the show. Meh. I love science but I don't think mad scientists running the show would be ideal. Too many monsters would be created.
But there are some small problems with the idea of a future world running on Bitcoin Capitalism.
I'll focus on the issue of electricity and the human problem of not trusting digital artifacts over physical ones.
I went to Kenya recently for Bitcoin Unconference and my first experience using Ksh was via Tando, which allowed me to spend Bitcoin and the supermarket cashier received M-Pesa Kshs on their phone via their merchant code.
That was cool.
Until I landed and went to my room, and now I could no longer access the Bus WiFi. Thing is, I was using a Ugandan SIM card so I could not buy Internet Data bundles for Safaricom. I have no Safaricom line.
Bitcoin is great, until the internet falters.
So fiat shall remain, friends. I hate to be the party pooper but good Bitcoiners should be realistic. Just like Quantum FUD is silly if you dig a little (hence do not support questionable BIPs to Post-quantum algorithms that make coins unspendable, that have been hastily put together like the covid vaccine and moreover, you're oh-so-scared over something that I just showed will hurt Bitcoin last, if at all, and is NOT IN ANY WAY a threat right now.
Moreover, it can be a good thing. As I showed).
There are many fiat currencies but the best one of them is a hard, shiny yellow metal that makes men's eyes light up and makes people lose their otherwise sensible manners.
Gold.
God is heavy, gold is excavated under inhumane conditions, gold is useless in the 21st Century as money.
But humans don't care.
Humans still love it, and geopolitical games will continue to be played around it because to States, gold can be moved and shuffled around. They can afford it. And if they tax their populations Bitcoin wallets to do this shuffling to the benefit of said population, that population will accept because they too value gold.
The question is, how can this gold game evolve so that geopolitics remains relevant but we don't have wars over mineral resources hence introduce dollars or yen to "kinda back" with gold but you really want to steal from your enemy and take their gold and mineral resources and energy access.
The question is:
how do we leverage gold to get more powerful as a species so that maybe in the future, people who mine gold are as protected as people who work with chips or with uranium.
Because it will be humane and because we will not be dismissive of their lives (because afterall, we're playing a zero-sum game here).
I have not come up with a better idea than move gold reserves off planet.
Interestingly I have thrown this idea out there on the internet, but nobody has yet said anything about it. Today may be my lucky day.
Please put as many critical holes in this as you dare. I want to have a proper model of economic reality that helps us move forward as a species. Because I like such stuff.
Use gold for settlement : No.
Use gold for extrapolated financing of space exploration : Yes.
I suspect there is some FUD around my idea because people think it makes sense but is too out there. Aso, it hasnt moved around as much. Usually when an idea doesn't make sense, one is called out pretty quickly even if it has only propagated in a small circle.
Quantum FUD, on the other hand, makes little sense but because of the massive campaign that the QC community has done for their work (also thanks to the generous funding by governments. I wonder why the FUD is so Bitcoin focussed and no banks are quivering in fear. Hmm...), it is everywhere.
What can I say. Quantum FUD is cowardly. Putting Gold on Mars (hopefully) is ballsy and actually further helps separate Bitcoin and state meddling. The state and its bankers gets powerful playing with rockets — the dragons of our time — so as to move gold and other precious mineral and stuff off planet for geopolitical gains, and leaves the plebs alone to profit from Bitcoin here on Earth just like they too would do, instead of sabotaging it.
Also, it's a much better flex if a Banker says he runs a Rocket company.
Of course, my own analysis says Elon Musk may be the first Banker in this regard. The AI arc is cool, but entertainment can only go so far, as Dogecoin has proven.
People need serious business because they need to actually provide value beyond laughs. Once AIs have been used to entertain us as much as we want, instead of shipping GPUs to space, Elon might find bigger clients bringing him their gold bullion to put on tge moon, then later on Mars.
Of course, humans have to first go to the moon. They're likely take a camera.
The next mission, robots will go. They'll take stuff.
Eventually, those robots will take gold and extend banking to outerspace.
Bitcoin's strength is we can and should upgrade signatures without waiting for the boom.
Energy signature argument makes sense for large machines, though.
I just think let's not do it hastily otherwise we may port to a less secure system. These new algorithms are proven mathematically (possibly), but actually designing classical software to implement then perfectly may be so full of bugs and attack vectors. Let's be careful as this is all new and is all from a point of fear, not strength.
Now imo, if we ever have to do it, I'd say let us do it after quantum computers have proven their threat. Since you agree with the energy signature argument, then you see that if a QC that can actually break a Bitcoin wallet is designed it will both be major news to that computer company and a way to rally Bitcoiners to move coins. The initial loss will only galvanize Bitcoiners better, while it will rally a lot of people to sympathatize with us against the big bad monster.
Also, as I have posted on Scott Aaronson's AMA page, quantum computers will be useful to Bitcoin so I'd say we call their bluff. Motivate the QC scientists to actually build them.
Otherwise, nah. It's way out there. Just like nuclear fusion.