Plummeting births may lead to an unexpected bipartisan support for tax hikes.

According to recent CDC data, United States births declined to another record low in 2025. The fertility rate now stands at 1.57 births per woman, not far above the “ultra-low” threshold of 1.3—a level associated with a “low-fertility trap,” in which fewer births becomes a self-reinforcing dynamic and difficult to reverse. Meantime, the median American is now approaching 40 years of age, up from 35 in 2001.

While the Congressional Budget Office expects the U.S. population to keep growing until 2056, the graying of America has already created severe political and economic strains for which the country remains unprepared. Most policy solutions—cutting entitlement spending, increasing immigration, or raising the retirement age—either lack feasibility or face intense bipartisan opposition. Absent a change in the political winds, we may soon see the Left and Right unite behind a counterproductive option: raising taxes.

Like most developed nations, the U.S. relies heavily on continuous population growth. Generous senior entitlements, for example, depend on a productive workforce that significantly outnumbers the retired population. But America’s low fertility rate has shrunk the worker-retiree ratio to just 2.7 to one—down from four to one in 1965.

Prolonged low fertility deepens reliance on the welfare state, particularly among the elderly. As traditional family support networks—children, grandchildren, and extended kin—diminish, the government increasingly assumes the role of surrogate caregiver.

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