The US, UK, Germany, and Japan are all rising together, a movement not seen since the 2000s.

The market has reversed its expectation of a rate cut to an increase in the US.

In February, two rate cuts were still being priced in by 2026. Today, the consensus points to an increase by March 2027.

The driving force is persistent inflation driven by energy, with central banks having stopped buying sovereign debt and now shrinking their balance sheets.

Less structural demand for long-term bonds at a time when supply continues to grow.

Global long-term interest rates rising in synchrony is the kind of movement that changes the cost of capital for everything at once.