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That tracks. Also, the process it speeds is the same process that assists programmers in understanding the code. So if a programmer still seeks to understand the code, it is paid in a lump sum at the end now
AI or not, the bottleneck on great code-work remains understanding the code, customer, and context. Until LLMs understand all of that as much as we do, and can prioritize and orient itself among their understanding, great work will continue to require great oversight.
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Also, the process it speeds is the same process that assists programmers in understanding the code. So if a programmer still seeks to understand the code, it is paid in a lump sum at the end now
Very interesting angle. That delay in spending the time to understand would directly feed into slowing down progress on the hard parts.
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Looking at developing a solid product from a pareto principle lens, I have the impression that AI can dramatically speed up the initial 20% of effort, but drastically slows down the remainder if you miss the cutoff point to put it aside.
And instead of reaching 80% of the desired state, you get to something more akin to the golden ratio.