Goldman Sachs has developed a framework for reading currencies by combining exposure to terms of trade and risk sensitivity.

Since the ceasefire, high-beta energy exporters have led the way: the Brazilian real, the Colombian peso, and the Norwegian krone.

The current interpretation is one of rotation.

With a resolution to the conflict, the terms of trade vector reverses, and the candidates for outperform become the high-beta energy importers: SEK, NZD, and GBP in the G10, plus KRW, ZAR, CLP, and HUF in emerging markets.

For the Brazilian real, this is a warning sign.

The recent gains came in part from the energy premium.

If this premium is priced out, some of the support that sustained the currency will also disappear.