TL:DR

March’s 49.8 Architecture Billings Index (ABI) sparked hope that a turn around in billing conditions was imminent. But that isn’t the case.

The AIA shared April’s report this week and the score dropped to 48.3. AIA  said “billings at firms were essentially flat,” however, the lower number indicates that more firms reported a decline rather than an increase in billings this month.

Wavering economic conditions, marked by inflation and now a looming energy crisis, have affected the industry and wider economy for years at this point. In its monthly report, the AIA pointed out, again, that the ABI has not “crossed” 50, which would indicate an increase in billings, since January 2023.

“April’s economic picture was mixed as employers continued to add jobs, but inflation accelerated as higher energy prices tied to the conflict in Iran drove up costs,” AIA chief economist Richard Branch said in a statement. “While a proposed gas tax holiday could offer some short-term relief, energy prices are unlikely to ease meaningfully until the conflict ends.”
New project inquiries again rose in April, as seen by the strong 57.7 score. The value of new design contracts still remains subpar.

In March billings in the West inched up, noted by a score of 50.6. April didn’t see the same growth; billings decreased across all regions, with billings still the highest in the West and the lowest in the Northeast.

Firms specializing in multifamily residential and institutional projects reported increases in billings in April. This is a positive sign in the midst of the country’s need for more housing

My Thoughts 💭My Thoughts 💭

Once again the Trump Administration is shooting itself in the foot. Billings looked to be on a path to growth that hasn’t been seen since 2023 only to be rugged by rising energy costs. The one silver lining is the increase in new project inquiries which signals people are considering new projects but aren’t taking the leap yet.