Same old question... we're gonna be asking/debating/talking about this for a long time, right? #1486740, #1492590

...before considering anything, yes, it's still just a Mag-7 show. Stock markets, and increasingly the entire US economy, are an AI-fueled joke

"what might it mean for AI to be a bubble? There are two possibilities.""what might it mean for AI to be a bubble? There are two possibilities."

Yeah, I mean, the concept of "bubble" is poorly understood... and per some powerful economics ideas, self-referentially impossible to establish. Price is all there is (= your pricing models suck; joint-hypothesis testing, etc etc #971152)

1. SOMETHING IMPORTANT HAPPENING:

But markets cannot estimate the returns and are being driven into a speculative frenzy. This, in turn, is fuelling an unsustainable (and to some degree unprofitable) surge in investment. Sooner or later, this bubble will burst, stock prices will collapse, many old and new businesses will go bankrupt and the investment will subside. But we will be left, as we were after, say, the railway booms of the 19th century and the dotcom bubble of the 1990s, with useful infrastructure: tracks, in the case of the former, and fibre optic cable, in the case of the latter. Such bubbles can transform the world.

hashtag Hobart and Huber's book (#1489832, #1420938)

2. AI IS ALL JUST NONSENSE
   I confess, I want this to be true. Some "bubbles" of the past emerged, burst, "and changed little." Others fundamentally uprooted our way of life.

as VC investor Rubén Domínguez Ibar notes in his newsletter The AI Corner, some providers, notably Anthropic, are generating huge rises in revenue, which helps explain the huge valuations expected in initial public offerings. So, the market is indeed bubbly, but it appears based on reality. #1496896, #1496889

AI revenue (profits?!) is real, as opposed to a lot of the hype in e.g., GFC or specifically dotcom bubble:

It is impossible to say the markets are “right” in judging the profitability of the current and prospective AI champions. It is also possible that the earnings we are seeing in Nvidia (or even the revenue in Anthropic) will not be sustained when the investment surge and AI-hype subside. But AI is not just a bubble, it has reality.

- Boons from AI: better healthcare, faster/better science, higher productivity, large-scale education, faster programs, inclusion, creativity and culture, "and improved access to human knowledge worldwide" (uh, jury is out on that...)

- Banes from AI: "loss of human control and accountability" -> new weapons, mass unemployment, vast power concentration, mass surveillance and authoritarian oppression, "even more misinformation and manipulation" (#hallucination/non-wisdom of trained data crowd?); entrenchment bias, erosion of human agency... ("the environmental costs of vastly resource-intensive systems" -- FUCK YOU... unimportant, Boomer twat.)

"AI is not just any 'general purpose technology'. If it develops in the ways that seem likely, it might change almost everything: AI is indeed existential""AI is not just any 'general purpose technology'. If it develops in the ways that seem likely, it might change almost everything: AI is indeed existential"

ChatGPT suggested humanity should stop treating technological capability as the same thing as progress,
If humanity had any collective sense (which it does not) and had the capacity to stop itself (which it does not), it would, I think, pause the whole thing.

eeeh, OK Germany?

I dunno, man. Can we just go outside and touch grass?

https://archive.md/plDuf