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Mustard Seed is his old podcast at Unchained... not the title of the video.

So, obvious question, every has been asking it for months and months, and here I am late to the party, but here we go anyways: if the issuer uses the investor's dollars to buy bitcoin, from where do they get the dollars to pay the investor the dividend?

P... P-.... don't mention the P word!! #1297459 Dilution as a service! https://www.stacker.news/items/1292636


the reality is that a credit investor that does not understand bitcoin would never buy this preferred stock. The target customer is bitcoiners or people blindly sold on yield (what could go wrong).

That was my conclusion way back when as well -- mostly, I think, in having to defend the treasury nonsense against tradfis thinking the equilibrium value of bitcoin is $0. (Then yes, duh, Strategy is trivially worthless and bankrupt-.-).
Conclusion: there's no obvious/natural audience for these products... (which, fair, has made it pretty shocking to me that they've reached 15bn or whatever)


a 100-fucking percent on this one. Very eloquent, and much more succinctly put than I have managed in my ~12 months of screaming about this

Excellent write-up

you are not their target audience

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What makes you think that??

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oh i dunno, maybe it's the unrelenting scorn with which you speak of them

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the reality is that a credit investor that does not understand bitcoin would never buy this preferred stock. The target customer is bitcoiners or people blindly sold on yield (what could go wrong).

Just because the writer can't imagine someone who could be interested in strc and not btc, that doesnt mean they dont exist.

Someone who does not understand bitcoin could be of the opinion that bitcoin has reached its fully adressable market, and will trade sideways indefinetly, and not be of the opinion that its going to 0 or the moon. This buyer of strc is making that bet, in order to bleed mstr dry. Mstr is making the bet bitcoin goes up.

As long as companies like strategy and strive maintain more btc on their balance sheet than preferred, the strc investor can bet on getting all their fiat money back and more.

The buyer of these preferreds are a similar type of person who would sell long dated ibit calls.

Obviously there are plenty of additional risks this type of investor needs to be aware of, like the possibility of a treasury company cranking their preferred interest rate to 0 rather than letting it bleed them dry, but I dont see that as guarenteed, as these companies still want the leverage unless they are truly going down the drain. Strategy current holds something like 30 years of dividend coverage worth of bitcoin. Someone making the sideways bet can make the bet on at least getting a third of that back before strategy permanently KOs their preferred by running the rate to 0, which would result in the strc investor having more fiat than what they started with(10 years at 11% > 100%).

Im not saying the terms of the bet are good, im just saying its a bet that someone could think is worthwhile.

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Its not a ponzi but it strongly depends on the appreciation of bitcoin. If bitcoin appreciates greatly then its fine... But that's no guarantee (thank you captain obvious)

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It's a Ponzi, just an honest and, like you say, benevolent one if bitcoin appreciates

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