Claude, please fix the bitcoin price, make no mistakes



It was a tough week to own – checks notes – anything, as stocks violently gave back a few weeks of gains, gold broke its 200 day moving average, and bitcoin did, well, bitcoin things. With a divided and potentially net-hawkish Fed making its debut next week, a generational reworking of who wears the pants in the dollar system coming into view, and fund managers pre-positioning for allocations into the three largest IPOs of all time, the road ahead will no doubt be bumpy, even as many technical and onchain indicators seem to point to bottom formation sometime in the near future. But at the risk of repeating ourselves, on weeks like this, we like to assess what’s actually going on in the world, and what we see is an administration that’s not shy about spending at historically aggressive levels on top of historically high public debt to reignite the traditional business cycle (a dynamic that has historically been quite positive for bitcoin) and shore up long-term US hegemony; a phase shift in technological capabilities paralleled by only a few moments in history, which will dramatically disrupt legacy capital markets in either the bull or bear case; an ongoing, radical shift away from an international trade system that assumed open capital markets and trusted sovereign partners; gradual, persistent improvements in the base protocol and user tooling needed to make bitcoin robust and extend its utility; and legacy institutions like Charles Schwab and Fannie Mae increasingly incorporating bitcoin offerings even in the face of terrible price action while the US Treasury Secretary frames a strategic bitcoin reserve as a matter of national security. I don’t know what to tell you, man; seems bullish.

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