You may recall that Arthur Hayes has been screaming about the bull market that is just about to begin any day now for realz ever since at least December. And yes, we do detect a minor tone of dissatisfaction in dear Arthur Hayes commentary...

This fucked up Goldilocks scenario cannot continue forever.

Hayes needs things to go badly. He's been begging for a government subsidized exit and the AI stock pump seems to have hurt him in some deep emotional way.

To check whether I’m lucid dreaming about this FUBAR universe in which I inhabit, I must perform a reality test. And if this test fails, I know I am dreaming and must alter my portfolio.

And so Hayes turns to the explanation I've seen trotted out by pretty much every butt-hurt price sensitive Bitcoiner:

My initial hunch is that AI sucked up all available fiat liquidity, especially of the US dollar flavor. AI, as we know it, is very capital-intensive. We must build data centers that convert electricity into intelligence. Hydrocarbons, nuclear, and renewable energy push turbines that create electricity. That electricity travels to data centers where it passes over specialized silicon chips that train models and conduct inference.

He also includes this rather startling chart:

Per the SpaceX S-1 filed with the SEC, investors in this IPO will pay ~100x sales. ARE YOU FUCKING OUT OF YOUR FUCKING HUMAN MIND! If that’s not bad enough, the company will only float 4-5% of shares initially. Given the red-hot AI market, it almost ensures that the stock will pop. But there is a downside to this: the expectations are so high that the law of large numbers suggests it will be almost impossible to satisfy the market. SpaceX will instantly be a $1.8 trillion ‌company and the seventh largest globally by market cap. To go up 50% would put it as the fifth largest company in the world just eking out Amazon, with nowhere near the earnings to justify membership in that rarified club.

Hayes is so hurt by the AI stocks stealing his liquidity that he's hoping that Trump will savage the AI stocks with aggressive words and lead us all into some relief from the stocks that only go up.

Therefore, the only path to victory is turning on the AI tech bros. If the market falls 50% between now and November, that is a small price to pay not to face an endless stream of House Democrat subpoena requests.

At this point it feels a little like he's just spraying words at his readers, hoping that some prediction will stick. He has come round to a prediction that he will be right, but only after he is wrong:

"I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump.""I am confident that Bitcoin will dump then pump."

Either way, at east he is still a fun read.