Inflation Isn't Rising Where Most People Think

Most inflation debates focus on gas prices, groceries, or tariffs.

This chart tracks something different:

Core producer inflation excluding food, energy, and trade services.

In other words, much of the volatile stuff has already been stripped out.

And after falling from its 2022 peak, it has quietly reversed course.

From roughly 2% in 2025 to over 5% today.

That matters because this isn't primarily an oil story.

It's a services story.

Healthcare.
Insurance.
Finance.
Professional services.
The labor-intensive parts of the economy that are notoriously difficult to disinflate.

The high-signal question isn't:

"Is inflation back?"

It's:

"Did inflation ever actually leave?"

The Fed's challenge was never getting inflation from 7% to 3%.

The challenge was getting from 3% to 2%.

That last mile is where inflation often becomes structural.

If this trend persists, the implication isn't necessarily a return to 2022.

It's something potentially more difficult:

• Inflation stuck above target.
• Interest rates stuck above expectations.
• Mortgage rates staying elevated.
• Government borrowing becoming more expensive.
• Consumers continuing to feel squeezed despite a growing economy.

The biggest economic risk may not be a recession.

It may be discovering that the post-2022 inflation regime never truly ended.