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Hang on, isn't this the pro case for gambling markets?? Revealing knowledge etc
at best the prediction market would elicit insiders to reveal the price.
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Yes, that's a useful function but it doesn't help SpaceX find the right price.
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Why not?
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I thought I already covered that. It's like how a Keynesian Beauty Contest doesn't necessarily elicit true perceptions of beauty.
Now, a market about what the price will be a bit further in the future might be useful because then the predictors will need to think about the equilibrium price.
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So liiiiiquidity <3
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I'm not sure a prediction market really helps with this.
In the event that it's believed to be an arbitrary choice, then people are just predicting what number Elon will pick and at best the prediction market would elicit insiders to reveal the price.
In the event that it's believed they are referencing the prediction market, the incentive is for potential investors to buy shares at really low prices and hope they both win that bet and get a screaming deal on the stock.