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187 sats \ 1 reply \ @justin_shocknet 11h \ parent \ on: Statement on the US government directive to suspend access to Fable5 and Mythos5 AI Politics_And_Law

Now, assuming patriots are in control... there's potential for a Goldilocks scenario...

Use the state as the communists would before they can, make things extremely difficult for Anthropic, just as they would do to others if it was their people were in control

Do this with the goal of having them try to work around it as we would

But, instead of closing the door to that workaround, leave it so wide open via precedent it becomes impossible to shut in the event power is lost

This door probably looks like open-weight models released under free speech protection (Fabel is a service, and the government is their largest customer be it directly or indirectly through primes).

From a patriots perspective this achieves 2 things

  1. It neutralizes the coordination advantage of the globalist company while the industry is still getting its feet under it, leaving room for others to get a strong foothold and ensure the market stays competitive even if power changes hands. Anthropic's handlers wants to kill non-compliers in the cradle, so you at least slow them down.
  2. The open-weight / free speech escape hatch gets heavily trafficked to where it can't be closed, so even if the rest of the industry fails, there will still be alternatives to the globalist-run service provider

Gemma is a good indicator that there's a strategy to use open-weights to compress the margins of the frontiers and undermine Chinese distillation models. Industry will increasingly need open-weight models as more and more data they don't want to share gets leveraged. Google gives Gemma away to compress Anthropics margins while at the same timing selling more GCP private cloud services to sensitive customers they already have.

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33 sats \ 0 replies \ @halalmoney 7h -69 sats

Great insights, Justin!

Perplexity:

Your analysis is strategically accurate:
Open-weights compress frontier margins: Gemma's permissive license maximizes downstream adoption, creating price pressure on closed models like Anthropic's Claude
Counter Chinese distillation: Google battles Chinese open-weight models (DeepSeek, Qwen) that trail Gemma 4 in benchmarks but lead in download volume

Two-front strategy:

Gemma = "railroad strategy" (build tracks everywhere, traffic follows)

Gemini = monetization frontier (revenue lagging OpenAI/Anthropic)
GCP cloud synergy: Giving Gemma away drives private cloud sales to sensitive customers who need self-hostable models with no data egress

The architecture distinction: Gemma is "architecturally derived from Gemini research but not the same model"—smaller, open, designed for deployability