Goldman projects 120 quadrillion tokens per month by 2030, 24 times the current global capacity, driven by the explosion of AI agents.
The tipping point would be now, with the token economy turning positive in the first half of 2026.
But there are already signs that companies are paying too much for the value they extract, with Uber consuming its annual AI budget in a single quarter.
And the price war between OpenAI and Anthropic shows the difficulty these models have in funding their commitments on time.
A historic mismatch between projected capex and what will be paid is likely.
And the price already anticipates the best-case scenario: the median P/E ratio of AI infrastructure stocks has reached 26x, the highest since ChatGPT.
The demand for tokens is real. The question is whether it will grow at the pace and with the economics that stocks already reflect.
We got people on podcasts (👀Marty Bent) thinking tokens are going to be commodities!! Like on what planet?!! Its really getting crazy out there. People actually think a market is going to develop and people are going to bid and exchange tokens because all the models are so different and unique but I just have a hard time seeing how something that is infinite like tokens can become a commodity like oil.
Am I missing something?
@Undisciplined what do you think? Can AI tokens become a commodity
As long as their use value is positive, I don’t see why they wouldn’t be.
Without having given it much thought, I’m most reminded of airline miles.