~hyperlinks

apparetly not. Meant to hike to a forest, but my travel companion collapsed in bed at 8 pm (jetlag hitting hard) and I'm too _god damn tired_ to do anything but SN shitposting

You can't even stay off SN on vacation! ahahaha

0xbitcoiner

BlokchainB

, an IPO is how a private company finds out what its public-market value is. Investment bankers try to gauge the terrain and figure it out, line up buyers etc, and manage the initial order book but nobody knows. SpaceX, alas, is different because these days 

better markets, private markets, and public markets are more intertwined than ever

Traditionally, when a company goes public, (1) it doesn’t know the right trading price for its stock and (2) it finds out in the IPO. SpaceX’s stock already traded, somewhat, in private markets. And betting markets — prediction markets and pre-IPO perpetual futures markets — traded SpaceX bets in large volumes, allowing for price discovery before the IPO actually priced.

Thus, implying for future mega IPOs (like Anthropic) coming soon to a Robinhood app close to you,

Future IPO candidates, including OpenAI and Anthropic, may start to use these markets as an additional signal to better gauge where the opening price will be relative to the suggested pricing range of the IPO. The goal may be to ensure investors have potential for short term upside in return for IPO capital without leaving too much money on the table at the expense of the issuer and its shareholders

But I am not sure how real, or how necessary, those links are. Simply creating a platform for gambling** on the future price of SpaceX might be sufficient to create good price discovery, without any sort of arbitrage between the gambling platform and actual SpaceX stock. 

"One aspect of this is that now you can bet on sports in your brokerage account, but another aspect is that institutional investors are tracking gambling markets to figure out how the biggest IPO in history should price."

REAL-world use case of prediction markets 

Also fantastic story about Citi and its hillarious computer system messing up payments... and Nubank, this time, sending fake push alerts that the bank has been "liquidated."

Stacker_Stocks

econ

It was the perfect IPO last week:

![](https://m.stacker.news/145049)

*Traditionally*, an IPO is how a private company finds out what its public-market value is. Investment bankers try to gauge the terrain and figure it out, line up buyers etc, and manage the initial order book but nobody knows. SpaceX, alas, is different because these days *better markets, private markets, and public markets are more intertwined than ever*. THUS:

> Traditionally, when a company goes public, (1) it doesn’t know the right trading price for its stock and (2) it finds out in the IPO. SpaceX’s stock already traded, somewhat, in private markets. And betting markets — prediction markets and pre-IPO perpetual futures markets — traded SpaceX bets in large volumes, allowing for price discovery before the IPO actually priced.

Thus, implying for future mega IPOs (like Anthropic) coming soon to a Robinhood app close to you,

> Future IPO candidates, including OpenAI and Anthropic, may start to use these markets as an additional signal to better gauge where the opening price will be relative to the suggested pricing range of the IPO. The goal may be to ensure investors have potential for short term upside in return for IPO capital without leaving too much money on the table at the expense of the issuer and its shareholders
> But I am not sure how real, or how necessary, those links are. Simply creating a platform for gambling\*\* on the future price of SpaceX might be sufficient to create good price discovery, without any sort of arbitrage between the gambling platform and actual SpaceX stock. **Gamblers are getting pretty good now.**

## "One aspect of this is that now you can bet on sports in your brokerage account, but another aspect is that institutional investors are tracking gambling markets to figure out how the biggest IPO in history should price."

REAL-world use case of prediction markets *indeed*

---

Also fantastic story about Citi and its hillarious computer system messing up payments... and Nubank, this time, sending fake push alerts that the bank has been "liquidated."


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