~hyperlinks

For now. It is getting better. You have to remember Kalshi and Polymarket both raised hundreds of millions in VC money. Predyx got some Bitcoin VC funding but nothing compared to that.

Yeah, too many eyeballs. Also the tech on Predyx is less reliable/comprehensive/transparent

denlillaapan

I think there are still mispricings in deeper liquidity, higher volume markets they are just harder to find and don't last as long.

For instance there is a market on Predyx for how many games Troy will win at the CWS. They have already won 1 game and were underdogs in today's game so 1 was priced around 60% and 2 at 36% with the remainder being 3, 4 and 0 with small percentage chances. I forgot they were playing today and didn't check the market until the 7th inning and Troy was already losing 6-0. 1 should have been at least 95% at this point but it was still 60 and only one user had made a bet for a few hundred sats. There is no way that would have still been available on Kalshi or polymarket.

Politics_And_Law

econ

My Week Trying to Get Rich on Prediction Markets (TFP, Joe Nocera)

I think there are still mispricings in deeper liquidity, higher volume markets they are just harder to find and don't last as long. 

For instance there is a market on Predyx for how many games Troy will win at the CWS. They have already won 1 game and were underdogs in today's game so 1 was priced around 60% and 2 at 36% with the remainder being 3, 4 and 0 with small percentage chances. I forgot they were playing today and didn't check the market until the 7th inning and Troy was already losing 6-0. 1 should have been at least 95% at this point but it was still 60 and only one user had made a bet for a few hundred sats. There is no way that would have still been available on Kalshi or polymarket.