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my father just sent me a fully ai-dubbed elon musk voiceover clearly created by a bot army swarm. i could tell just from the thumbnail and then was certain after a couple seconds. yet he forwarded me thinking it was "insightful" - yikes!
peers over black-tinted realist lenses
I don't think the US is magically exceptional. I do believe free-market capitalism with hard money is a force-multiplier for society since it incentivizes individuals to work and innovate. These days the best economic freedom is found in Singapore or Hong Kong. The Triffin's Dilemma-created trade surplus with China is certainly a big short-term advantage in production capability.
However, China (and every country uses pure debt-based fiat) suffers from the same bureaucratic and debt problems the US has - they're actively ramping up money printing daily right now to counteract the bad debt in their real estate and banking sectors.
The greatest threat to fiat hegemony is itself because fiat is fundamentally ineffective at storing value or rewarding the contributing members of society. Over time it leads to civil unrest and stagflation due to central banking and will splinter a country no matter how it manages its macro trade.
You might be right that China can outlast the US. But it can't outlast competition with superior monetary technology.
Timeline sounds reasonable. US has an advantage in that it can sort of balkanize into states - but it doesn't resolve the underlying public institution inefficiency and thus inability to provide safety.
Trying to get better projections around this timeline can feel a bit like abstract over-intellectualizing. But, I think it has very real repercussions. For example, if one needs to spend years to get second passports for their whole family or learn a new language or build an expertise in MMA & marksmanship those are all high-cost preparations that deserve well thought out projections. Suddenly the 2030s doesn't seem like its that far away!
that tracks how Roman law was fragmented and absorbed by germanic invaders as it fell - tribes and the church kept some while jettisoning others. i'd imagine some foundational aspects of our legal framework which are based on roman law will continue into the future as well. though its not clear to me who the "enforcer" will be...
Interesting article. There are quite a few statements used as assumptions I would disagree with including:
- s-curve doesn't factor in laggards (it does)
- consumers decide on narrative (partly)
- worsening associations & venn overlap (my personal experience is the opposite)
Read: Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation Theory & five attributes that effect adoption:
(1) relative advantage, (superior asset)
(2) compatibility, (improving rapidly)
(3) complexity, (easier for younger people)
(4) trialability, (how well bitcoin integrates or can be experimented with)
(5) observability (how obviously it helps you)
Despite disagreeing with much of the author's premise I do agree with the conclusion that appealing to mainstream audiences increases adoption but I think that IS happening organically.
One more controversial thought I've had on this S-Curve adoption topic is that perhaps for monetary technologies the Y-axis* shouldn't be percentage of world population but perhaps its percentage of net world asset value or something like that. Evolution doesn't distribute evenly and thats a difficult truth.
the world could really use a comprehensive user-friendly security plan creation solution imo - determining & mitigating attack vectors in a "normie-friendly" way
while everyone's situation is a bit unique, it seems like like are commonalities or principles that could be abstracted up and offloaded from manual human research and effort. perhaps like a private local llm that figures out what attack vectors your likely exposed to through a chat interface and then recommending tangible links and steps to address
spacex is great and even ai space datacenters make sense. its just the market is irrationally exuberant far beyond that greatness. the issue is the financialization of the economy due to central banking than any individual entrepreneur. they are just acting rationally to win the game they are in.