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I really like mint and it was my go to. But my old laptop got to where it couldn't handle it so I had to downsize things. I go with lubuntu now.
We apparently are thinking differently because I understand very little about what you just wrote. I'll try though...
These coins are spendable today.
Of course they are. Satoshi can spend them.
These attributes are 100% fabricated
This confuses me. The attributes of Satoshi with 1M coins is fabricated? If I understand correctly, you're saying the Satoshi coins are already out there, live, spendable, etc. What I'm saying is that they are not on a market. Yes, Satoshi could put them on Coinbase today. I think I get what you're saying now, we shouldn't assume Satoshi will never do this. Fair enough.
banksters, politicians and scammers will be instantly out of business
I don't understand this at all. If Satoshi's coins were hacked, I don't see how that hurts the old ways.
So, as I see it, you're outlining these possible paths of action?
(a) competing labs keep announcing developments and "breakthroughs" and gradually build a tide toward CRQC such that we all gradually come to the realization that "it's happening" and we must take action.
- this is assuming they feel their incentives are to disclose things
- as they get closer, might incentives change? might it be in their best interest to not announce developments? is "betting bitcoin" worth this risk?
(b) sneaky bad actor nation works covertly and does not announce developments and suddenly has a CRQC with which to do ill
(c) both things go on simultaneously, both public lab announcements and sneaky covert nations. This, I feel, is how it would actually go in the real world.
All told, it would be a case of what occurs first...
- good actor lab gets CRQC first and benevolently announces it to world
- good actor lab gets very close, then realizes a CRQC is imminent, then goes rogue
- sneaky actor nation uses public information and private secret info and gets CRQC first then does what they do
neither of these things will happen anytime soon
Fair enough and valid points about Mars for sure. Talk about human settlements on Mars, or on the moon even seem to me to many, many steps down the road. But, this "anytime soon" is what concerns me. 10 to 15 years falls into the "soon" category in my definition. Years come and go quickly. I remember 9/11 and the overall conclusion of "failure of imagination". Things, technology things in general, seem to be accelerating far faster than we can keep up. I'd hate to get caught napping because anytime soon won't come.
It's not a discussion, though. It's a proposal.
Discussion, proposal...semantics. You can discuss a proposal verbally, through writing, or discuss by action or inaction, by "voting with your feet" as they say.
I like what you write about taking action, be the change, etc. And that's kind of what worries me. Although this BIP is there, is there any action? Any traction to the proposal? At least it's there. Seems like bullet point #1 to me.
Why? Not your keys, not your coin.
I'm not sure I exactly understand what you're getting at here. Satoshi supposedly has over 1M coins. If those keys were hacked: (a) that's about 5.5% of the supply of bitcoin that'd suddenly be out there, conceivably to flood the market. I agree with what, I think, you're saying and that things would eventually bounce back. (b) I think that would be a huge, huge, hit to the trust in bitcoin. I could see how "bitcoin's own inventor got hacked!" would be a hurdle that normies might never get over. Maybe it would happen, but it would take years, I would think decades.
Definitely way above my technical level, but...
- First reaction is that it seems like a step in the right direction, where doing something is better than nothing. (This, actually, is not always true.)
- At least it's discussion, a phasing into quantum defense. It kind of seems like what I mentioned, though, with the bickering and the arguing...the good and bad. Some will do it, others will not. This fits in the "can't hurt" category.
- But then - Satoshi's coins are still a problem. Frankly it seems that if Satoshi's stash is still at risk, it kind of becomes a moot point. If X% of bitcoiners moved from legacy addresses to P2MR, but Satoshi's coins are still there and are still "hackable", that would be an immense problem. Unless of course Satoshi moved or burnt those coins. Hint, hint, nudge, nudge, Satoshi.
what is this hunched based on?
Fair question. What is this or any hunch based on, who knows? But I'd say a hunch is the spilling out of the brew and ferment of whatever you've picked up or observed or felt, even subconsciously. It's definitely not science. Ideally the reality is more in line with your probabilities.
I hope you're right. However, bitcoiners aren't the type that typically like being told what to do. This especially from institutions. Seems to me that bitcoiners are often more likely to do the opposite of whatever the institutions mandate. I could be totally wrong on this one though. It comes back to the "aligned incentives" and if everyone feels they're truly aligned. Appreciate your thoughts.
I'm more optimistic than you that there will be some sort of mitigation for quantum that gets adopted
I'm happy to read this and I hope my prediction is totally wrong and laughable one day.
That said, I'm actually more optimistic about things than pessimistic. I compare it to a stubborn person who will not go to the doctor for medical treatment, even though it's needed. Eventually, the pain will be enough to get them into the office for treatment.
There are very smart people in bitcoin who I think will figure this out. To me, it's a case of aligned incentives...they'll realize that we all have a lot to gain with a solution and a lot to lose if bitcoin "goes to zero", and therefore it'll get remedied when we reach that break point.
Surprise surprise, a tax in Illinois. Illinois seems to be one of the top wasteful (and maybe corrupt, I don't know) states in the U.S. It is absolutely run by Chicago, which is a world different from the farming communities everywhere else.
A for-instance of incompetence/foolishness/corruption: it was told to me that one of the interstates was contracted out to different companies for each one to do 20 mile segments. The result is a patchwork of shoddy pavement and patched potholes. The only reason I can imagine doing splintered 20 mile chunks is a kickback somehow, somewhere, to somebody. Worse, it's one one the few states in the region to actually charge tolls for, ahem, road construction and upkeep.