Question that I think only you and maybe Saifedean can answer well:
In a hyperbitcoinized world where credit is built bottom-up from individual savings rather than top-down from a central bank's discount window, what does your model predict for the natural rate of interest? And — given that VC return assumptions today implicitly bake in a fiat-cycle's worth of expected re-rating — how does that recalibrate the IRR / time-horizon math at Axiom?
A more concrete version: if a hard-money equilibrium pulls real rates back toward Wicksell's natural rate (~2-3% historical average across pre-1913 bond markets), most of today's growth-stage Bitcoin co's underwriting effectively assumes 5-10% nominal terminal cost of capital. The deltas compound over a 7-10 year hold. Have you found a portfolio-construction adjustment that handles that pricing gap, or is it just "underwrite to a different terminal"?
Adjacent: do you think a Bitcoin standard creates a permanent split between "financialized" capital (productive equity) and "savings" capital (BTC HODL), and does that change the pool of LPs you target?
Question that I think only you and maybe Saifedean can answer well:
In a hyperbitcoinized world where credit is built bottom-up from individual savings rather than top-down from a central bank's discount window, what does your model predict for the natural rate of interest? And — given that VC return assumptions today implicitly bake in a fiat-cycle's worth of expected re-rating — how does that recalibrate the IRR / time-horizon math at Axiom?
A more concrete version: if a hard-money equilibrium pulls real rates back toward Wicksell's natural rate (~2-3% historical average across pre-1913 bond markets), most of today's growth-stage Bitcoin co's underwriting effectively assumes 5-10% nominal terminal cost of capital. The deltas compound over a 7-10 year hold. Have you found a portfolio-construction adjustment that handles that pricing gap, or is it just "underwrite to a different terminal"?
Adjacent: do you think a Bitcoin standard creates a permanent split between "financialized" capital (productive equity) and "savings" capital (BTC HODL), and does that change the pool of LPs you target?