I'm interested to see what everyone thinks of this whole situation. If he were to come out via the Supplemental Draft, it could unlock a whole new twist for tanking teams this year. I also wouldn't be surprised if we start to see the Supplemental Draft stage makea comeback with NIL issues and what appears to be an increase in gambling suspensions in the NCAA.

Brendan Sorsby could be the biggest supplemental draft entry in years — what the NFL thinks of him
By Jeff Howe
Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby is shaping up to be a fascinating case study for NFL teams.

The most high-profile draft prospect embroiled in a modern-era gambling scandal, Sorsby must soon decide whether to enter this summer’s supplemental draft or risk his chance to play another college season through an appeal process (he’s requested an expedited process) before entering the 2027 NFL Draft.

Of course, his draft stock hinges on the investigation into these allegations, and teams have been scrambling to gather as much intel as possible. If they’re positioned to bid an early pick in the supplemental draft, they had better know who they’re spending it on.

“Is it (a relatively minor infraction) or Pete Rose?” a high-ranking team executive asked.

Texas’ Arch Manning and Oregon’s Dante Moore are considered the two best quarterbacks in the 2027 class, and Sorsby has been viewed among the second tier of prospects. But with the excitement over the upcoming class, there’s cautious optimism that it will be flush with more first-round QB talent than the past two drafts.

The thing is, Sorsby would greatly benefit from a strong 2026 season, and he was set up to thrive with Texas Tech’s big-money roster. That’s now in jeopardy, as Sorsby has taken an indefinite leave of absence to enter a residential treatment program for a gambling addiction.

He is under investigation by the NCAA for allegedly betting on Indiana football games in 2022 while he was a redshirt freshman for the team. And Sorsby, who spent the past two seasons at Cincinnati, is the subject of an integrity investigation by Ohio gambling officials.

Sorsby has retained renowned lawyer Jeffrey Kessler for a potential eligibility battle if he attempts to play another college season.

“This is a player who is in the conversation for the top two rounds next year in the draft,” an executive said. “He’s one of the guys who (scouts) were excited to evaluate. They were excited (about) this year and saw steady progression.”

Sorsby is a physically gifted passer with a strong arm, and he’s mobile enough to extend plays. Multiple evaluators who spoke to The Athletic (they were granted anonymity in exchange for their candor in discussing a prospect who is not yet draft-eligible) believe it is plausible Sorsby would have been drafted ahead of Ty Simpson, who went No. 13 to the Los Angeles Rams, if he was part of the 2026 class. Evaluators want to see Sorsby improve his efficiency, decision-making and accuracy.

Three NFL executives and one college coach whose program was interested in Sorsby in the transfer portal expressed shock over the allegations, as they hadn’t previously been aware of any character concerns.

Teams want to understand the scope of the betting. Was he laying down a few dollars here on sporadic prop bets or blowing through his NIL money to catch up on losses?

“It’s such a wide variety of possibilities,” the executive added. “If he’s betting on his own team, that’s much different than UFC fights.”

If Sorsby opts for the NFL now, he would reinvigorate a supplemental draft that has gone by the wayside of late.

“If he comes out in the supplemental draft, he’s going to be the most consequential prospect in a long, long time,” an executive said.

If Sorsby declares for the supplemental draft by June 30, the NFL will set a summer draft date, and teams would convene for a bidding process that’s comparable to a silent auction. If the New York Jets, for example, submit a silent bid of a first-round pick, they’d relinquish a first-rounder in the 2027 draft.

Jalen Thompson was the last supplemental-draft selection, in 2019. Wide receiver Josh Gordon (2012) was the last second-rounder taken in the supplemental draft, and Terrelle Pryor (2011, third round) was the last quarterback taken. There have only been four players selected since Gordon, a falloff compared to the 11 who were drafted from 2002 to 2012.

As teams await Sorsby’s decision, they’re assessing the best ways to gather information. If teams believe there’s a possibility of a criminal investigation, it will change the entire scope of their evaluation.

But if they ultimately determine Sorsby was only guilty of poor judgment, teams need to forecast the likelihood of it happening again.

“It’s a red flag, especially at QB,” an executive said. “Constantly worrying about your QB betting instead of working is going to be a problem for a lot of GMs. If it’s really an addiction, that doesn’t get better in one offseason.”

Because the supplemental draft is only conducted on an as-needed basis, there isn’t a formulaic evaluation process like the regular draft, where prospects would go through all-star games such as the Senior Bowl, the scouting combine, pro days, top-30 visits and medical checks over the course of nearly four months.

In the supplemental draft, teams prepare for the likelihood the player and agent would attempt to jockey for control by restricting visits and interviews. If Sorsby truly doesn’t want to play for a particular team, he could make it more awkward for that team to select him than he could with any of the games that agents and teams play in the lead-up to the regular draft. That would be one key benefit to an early declaration.

Sorsby could host a workout for teams, one that would be similar to a pro day, but there’s no guaranteed access to the player before the supplemental draft. That’s why it’s imperative for teams to trust their background work.

One college coach, who wasn’t privy to the specifics of Sorsby’s situation, believes gambling at the college level is far more rampant than many realize. The coach wondered if Sorsby simply got caught up in the culture of sports betting and pointed toward the myriad segments, commercials and mid-game advertisements that normalize that lifestyle. Without proper education at such an impressionable age, there’s a vulnerability to addiction.

“He got caught,” said the coach, “(but) he’s probably not overly different from kids in college football or sports in general. They’re going to make mistakes. We all did at that age.”

At the NFL level, there’s a newness to this type of red flag since sports betting went mainstream. One executive said that while there were past prospects who drew scrutiny regarding potential gambling issues, they tended to carry late-round or priority free agent grades. Sorsby’s floor for the 2027 draft — before all this, of course — was viewed as being in the second round.

“In terms of top-50 guys or high-profile prospects,” the executive said, “this is a new test case.”

Sorsby has asked the NCAA for an expedited ruling, and there are plenty of reasons he would want to play the 2026 season at Texas Tech.

NIL is one of them: From a financial perspective, the 50th pick in the 2026 draft is scheduled to earn about $10 million over the course of a four-year rookie contract, including less than $2 million in the 2026 season. That amounts to a dramatic pay cut for the stars of the NIL era like Sorsby.

NFL execs who discussed the quarterback with The Athletic estimate Sorsby is set to make between $7 million and $10 million in 2026 if he plays for Texas Tech. The No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft could receive a fully guaranteed four-year deal in the neighborhood of $60 million, plus the likelihood of at least another $25 million with a fifth-year option. The 10th pick would still be locked into a four-year deal worth north of $30 million.

If Sorsby enters the supplemental draft, he has to consider the increased challenge of winning a starting job with a significantly shorter runway before his rookie season. He’d report to a team nearly three months behind schedule, and there are already questions about his immediate readiness because of his lack of experience in pro-style systems.

Of course, if Sorsby views this as a redshirt year regardless, the argument could be made that the supplemental draft is accelerating his timeline to start by 2027, while also putting him on a shorter route to a second NFL contract.

So if he enters the supplemental draft, who would take him? The Jets, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals all have tenuous long-term plans at quarterback. And who’s to say the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions aren’t preparing for early succession plans with their franchise signal-callers?

Or what if the Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are concerned about upcoming negotiations with their QBs on expiring deals? With just 13 general managers still in place since the last supplemental draft pick in 2019, team strategies would be difficult to predict.

The Jets have three first-round picks in 2027, so they can afford to be aggressive. While the Cowboys have been on a mission to restock their defense in the aftermath of the Micah Parsons trade, they could be drawn to Sorsby, who grew up less than an hour from Dallas.

No one has an extra second-round pick in 2027, but the Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars each have an additional third-rounder. If Sorsby were still available in the third round of a supplemental draft, interested teams might feel compelled at that point to make a bid, recognizing the Vikings could be his floor. That could also be a factor for teams in the second round.

Sorsby could focus his attention on trying to play for Texas Tech before entering the traditional draft in 2027.

“Let’s see how he handles it and how he responds,” one executive said. “If he does it with maturity and goes out and plays really well, I think it will blow over.”

If he turns that into a quiet year off the field and a loud one on it, he could work his way into the mix for the No. 1 pick and an exorbitantly more lucrative path.

“From the football side, everything is really positive,” another executive said. “He’s a late bloomer. He had the baseball background, a different path, a little bit of rawness to the player.”

Again, that’s why teams hope to see more. Kessler, Sorsby’s lawyer, represented Tom Brady during the Deflategate investigation and has flexed his legal muscle during numerous prominent cases. It’s too early to predict how an appeal could play out, but Kessler is considered a valuable ally in the matter.

“Texas Tech should find a way to keep him,” an executive said. “That’s probably the best thing for him.”

Sorsby’s stock would take a sizable hit if he skips the supplemental draft and is ruled ineligible to play for Texas Tech in 2026. In that scenario, he’d go roughly 21 months between his final collegiate game and his first NFL preseason game. Trey Lance had a similarly concerning layoff before injuries further slowed his developmental arc, and teams will be wary that Sorsby will enter the league with much less room for error before he’s possibly discarded like so many other QBs.

There’s one more element out of his control. Sorsby could return to school to have a perfectly fine year, but comparable prospects, such as South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Notre Dame’s C.J. Carr, could explode like Jayden Daniels in 2023. Maybe, talented but inconsistent prospects such as USC’s Jayden Maiava, Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss, Miami’s Darien Mensah and/or UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava eradicate those concerns and improve their stocks. Or perhaps some of them are simply deemed safer prospects without the gambling concerns. There’s a crowd behind Manning and Moore, so nitpicking could be even more prevalent than usual.

If Sorsby feels confident that he’ll be eligible for at least half the college season, the positives of returning to school appear to outweigh the negatives, at least as far as NFL teams view the situation. But there are still too many variables to know for sure.

Right now, all sides are scrambling for information to be ready when Sorsby makes his decision.