EconVerse

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Stacker_Stocks

Exposure to leveraged and inverse ETFs listed in the US hit a new record, net $464 billion, according to Goldman Sachs.

3x leveraged products alone total $320 billion.

The recent surge is what's noteworthy.

The curve exploded almost vertically, a sign of aggressive risk appetite precisely when the market is operating near highs.

This connects directly to the data showing ETFs gaining volume share during high volatility: investors aren't just using more ETFs, they're using the most aggressive ones.

This fuels rapid movements in both directions and amplifies any correction when the wind changes.

![](https://m.stacker.news/145405)

Exposure to leveraged and inverse ETFs listed in the US hit a new record.

Research by the World Gold Council with central banks sends a strong message: 62% of them expect the dollar to represent a smaller share of global reserves in five years.

In 2022, that number was 38%.

The trend is clear and growing. Year after year, more central banks are betting on the de-dollarization of reserves.

On the other hand, almost no one sees the dollar gaining ground.

This movement helps explain the rush to gold.

If the American currency loses share as a reserve, something needs to occupy that place, and the metal has been the main destination for this reallocation.

![](https://m.stacker.news/145071)

The World Gold Council's research with central banks sends a strong message.

Morgan Stanley already sees $805 billion in 2026 and $1.1 trillion in 2027, compared to previous estimates of $765 billion and $950 billion.

Goldman Sachs goes even further, saying that even this is conservative, projecting something close to $1.4 trillion.

To put this in perspective: spending went from $261 billion in 2024 to over $1.1 trillion in 2027. A CAGR of 69% at Google, 54% at Microsoft, and 116% at Oracle.

This has two sides. It's the largest corporate investment ever seen in AI infrastructure, and it supports the entire chip, energy, and data center supply chain.

But it's capital expenditure that still needs to turn into revenue, with depreciation arriving before the payback period.

![](https://m.stacker.news/144907)

Hyperscaler capex has become the biggest investment rush in recent history.

Goldman projects 120 quadrillion tokens per month by 2030, 24 times the current global capacity, driven by the explosion of AI agents.

The tipping point would be now, with the token economy turning positive in the first half of 2026.

But there are already signs that companies are paying too much for the value they extract, with Uber consuming its annual AI budget in a single quarter.

And the price war between OpenAI and Anthropic shows the difficulty these models have in funding their commitments on time.

A historic mismatch between projected capex and what will be paid is likely.

And the price already anticipates the best-case scenario: the median P/E ratio of AI infrastructure stocks has reached 26x, the highest since ChatGPT.

The demand for tokens is real. The question is whether it will grow at the pace and with the economics that stocks already reflect.

![](https://m.stacker.news/144902)

Goldman projects 120 quadrillion tokens per month by 2030.

Nearly 400 of them have surpassed US$100 million.

They are not bankers or venture capitalists. They are SpaceX employees: welders, technicians, mechanics, and even cafeteria workers. For twenty years, the company has paid people at all levels with stock options, not just high salaries. Those who produced, reaped the rewards.

Juan Hernandez, a Mexican immigrant, accepted a job as a welder for US$28 an hour in 2015, without even really knowing what SpaceX was. He received a small stake of US$10,000 and was able to buy more through payroll deductions. Today his share is worth US$880,000.

Trevor Hise ignored his parents' advice to take a "safe" job at General Electric. He chose SpaceX, stayed for 12 years, and accumulated more than 100,000 shares. At the listing price, that's US$13.5 million. At 37, he is already eligible for retirement. His words: “The magnitude of this is ridiculous.”

The most telling detail came even before the IPO: more than 100 employees quietly joined forces to hire a wealth management firm capable of handling up to US$5 billion. Many had never needed a wealth manager in their lives.

For decades, tech company IPOs have enriched programmers. This time, the money reached the factory floor. This is true capitalism: those who take risks, those who work, and those who deliver value reap proportional rewards.

![](https://m.stacker.news/144634)

Elon Musk created 4,400 new millionaires in a single day.

The average correlation between S&P 500 stocks is at its lowest level since 2018, well below the historical average.
Low correlation means that stocks are moving less and less together. We've moved from a "macro market" regime, where everything rose or fell as a whole, to a "stock picker's market," where the individual performance of each company matters again.

![](https://m.stacker.news/143816)

The average correlation between S&P 500 stocks is at its lowest level since 2018

Same pattern:

2022: Michael sold -> BTC hit the bottom

2026: Michael sold -> WE ARE HERE

Most reliable indicator ever

![](https://m.stacker.news/143699)


https://x.com/cryptosymbiiote/status/2062294404501570014?s=20

Saylor indicator 2022 vs 2026

For comparison: the American interstate highway system cost US$620 billion over 37 years. US railroads, US$550 billion over 71 years.

In inflation-adjusted terms, AI infrastructure has already surpassed the Apollo Project, the Marshall Plan, and the Manhattan Project combined, in a fraction of the time.

It is the largest and fastest mobilization of private capital in history.


![](https://m.stacker.news/143384)

Capital expenditure on data centers reached US$930 billion in just 6 years.

The same level as previous peaks in market concentration.

Nifty Fifty in the 70s reached 40%. Japan in the 80s at 44%. Tech and telecom in 2000 at 41%.

All these cycles ended with a severe correction of the concentrated theme.


![](https://m.stacker.news/143270)

The top 10 AI companies already account for 41% of the S&P 500.

Goldman Sachs has developed a framework for reading currencies by combining exposure to terms of trade and risk sensitivity.

Since the ceasefire, high-beta energy exporters have led the way: the Brazilian real, the Colombian peso, and the Norwegian krone.

The current interpretation is one of rotation.

With a resolution to the conflict, the terms of trade vector reverses, and the candidates for outperform become the high-beta energy importers: SEK, NZD, and GBP in the G10, plus KRW, ZAR, CLP, and HUF in emerging markets.

For the Brazilian real, this is a warning sign.

The recent gains came in part from the energy premium.

If this premium is priced out, some of the support that sustained the currency will also disappear.


![](https://m.stacker.news/143091)

Goldman Sachs built a framework to analyze currencies by combining exposures.

China has accumulated approximately 1.4 billion barrels of oil in reserves, more than three times that of the US and far exceeding any other country.

This is no coincidence. Since 2022, with Xi reinforcing the goal of self-sufficiency, China's stockpile of commodities has skyrocketed, from rare earths and oil to gold and agricultural products.

This stockpile serves two functions:

It cushions price shocks during times of geopolitical tension and gives China bargaining power.

When the world's largest oil buyer is already well-stocked, it can wait.

And whoever can wait dictates the price.

![](https://m.stacker.news/143090)

China has accumulated approximately 1.4 billion barrels of oil in reserves.

Goldman Sachs raised its S&P 500 projection to 8,000 points by the end of 2026, with EPS of $340, a 24% increase for the year. For 2027, it projects $385.

The key detail is the composition: about half of the index's profit growth this year comes from beneficiaries of AI infrastructure investment.

In other words, the S&P 500 is expensive but with strong profit growth, and this growth is concentrated in a single theme.

This thesis supports the index as long as the AI capex cycle continues.

If it slows down, half of the profit engine slows down as well.

Incredible...


![](https://m.stacker.news/143088)

Goldman raised its S&P 500 growth forecast to 8,000 points by the end of 2026.

Brent crude oil falls 5% as US and Iran negotiate deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz and end war.


![](https://m.stacker.news/142454)

https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2058671679283294528?s=20

Brent crude oil falls 5% as US and Iran negotiate deal

The level has remained high since 2022 and has not returned to zero.

This is a direct legacy of the interest rate hike cycle. Banks bought Treasuries and MBS when yields were low, and now these securities are worth less.

As long as interest rates don't fall, the loss remains on the balance sheet.

It's not an immediate risk as long as there's no run on withdrawals.

But it's a reminder that the American banking system still carries a structural vulnerability that the market chose to ignore after the SVB episode.

![](https://m.stacker.news/142305)

US banks hold about $500B in unrealized securities losses.

Foreign investors have sold nearly US$60 billion in Korean stocks since the beginning of 2026, accelerating sharply from March.

Domestic institutional investors sustained the market, buying US$27 billion in the same period.

This is a typical pattern of divergence between foreign capital leaving and local capital holding the index.

The problem is that this flow has a limit.

When foreign investors sell on a large scale and domestic investors absorb everything alone, the question is how long they can maintain this position, especially with margin leverage at an all-time high.


![](https://m.stacker.news/142186)

Foreigners sold nearly $60B in Korean stocks since early 2026.

Shrink the balance sheet and cut interest rates.

The market isn't cooperating.

Since his appointment in January, the 10-year yield has risen from 4.3% to 4.6%.

The war with Iran accelerated the movement.

On his first day as chair, Treasuries are already pricing in a completely different environment than he had in mind.

Cutting interest rates with inflation pressured by energy and long-term yields rising is politically risky and technically difficult.

Warsh inherited a Fed with little room for maneuver and a market that had already tested his credibility before he even took office.


![](https://m.stacker.news/141873)

Kevin Warsh took over the Fed with a clear mandate:

The projection for 2027 is -0.8%.

AI capex will consume virtually all of the operating cash flow of hyperscalers between 2026 and 2028, an investment level that surpasses the peak of the 4G/5G cycle for American telecom companies.

The market is rewarding those who invest in AI.

But there is a point where investment ceases to be a thesis and becomes cash flow pressure.

For companies that the market still prices as cash generators, a negative FCF margin is a significant shift in narrative.

![](https://m.stacker.news/141698)

Big tech companies were generating a free cash flow margin of 20% in 2018.

The US, UK, Germany, and Japan are all rising together, a movement not seen since the 2000s.

The market has reversed its expectation of a rate cut to an increase in the US.

In February, two rate cuts were still being priced in by 2026. Today, the consensus points to an increase by March 2027.

The driving force is persistent inflation driven by energy, with central banks having stopped buying sovereign debt and now shrinking their balance sheets.

Less structural demand for long-term bonds at a time when supply continues to grow.

Global long-term interest rates rising in synchrony is the kind of movement that changes the cost of capital for everything at once.

![](https://m.stacker.news/141695)

30-year yields at decade highs in all developed markets.

Up US$17 trillion from the 2025 low.

Global liquidity at an all-time high is the fuel the market needs to sustain high valuations.

When the money supply grows at this rate, real and financial assets tend to benefit.

Now we know the main risk of all this…


![](https://m.stacker.news/141535)

The global money supply reached US$121.9 trillion.

Historically, this quadrant occurred in 1999 and on a few other occasions.

It's not impossible. But it's rare.

The market is pricing in that AI results justify high multiples even with rising treasuries, ignoring the effect of the discount rate on valuation.

1999 also seemed different until it wasn't.

![](https://m.stacker.news/141534)

Nasdaq annualizing 45% with long-term interest rates rising 80 basis points.

Japan has already spent more than US$200 billion since 2022 selling dollars to support the yen.

The most recent intervention was US$54.7 billion.

The problem is that the custody curve at the Fed continues to fall, meaning that interventions are slowing the fall but not reversing the structural trend.

As long as the interest rate differential between the US and Japan remains, the selling pressure on the yen will not disappear.

The Bank of Japan is in a dilemma: raising interest rates to defend the currency implies pressure on a public debt of 260% of GDP.

Currency intervention buys time. It doesn't solve the problem.


![](https://m.stacker.news/140615)